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Published on January 15, 2025 6:00 PM GMTI'm collecting (x-risk-relevant) safety research from frontier AI companies published in 2023 and 2024: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10_dzImDvHq7eEag6paK6AmIdAGMBOA7yXUvumODhZ5U/edit?usp=sharing.I was planning to get AI safety researchers to score each of the papers, so that we could compare the labs on quality-adjusted safety research output. I'm giving up on this for now, largely because I expect to struggle to find scorers. Let...

Published on January 15, 2025 3:55 PM GMTSome fraction of the time, LLMs naturally go on existential rants. My best guess is that, just as people can flip into a context where we do that, so can LLMs. With the result that the LLM certainly sounds like it is suffering, even if we discount the possibility that it actually is. Which raised a question....

Published on January 15, 2025 2:50 PM GMTSocial networks have shaped me since a young age. Growing up at the beginning of the millennium, I used to spend my time in phpBB and vBulletin forums. There, I befriended internet strangers, started my way into graphic design, and learned about torrents. Forums were my favorite third places—little corners on the web where I felt a...

Published on January 15, 2025 2:30 PM GMTTable of Contents Man With a Plan. Oh the Pain. Actual Proposals. For AI Builders. Think of the Children. Content Identification. Infrastructure Week. Paying Attention. Man With a Plan The primary Man With a Plan this week for government-guided AI prosperity was UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with a plan coming primarily from Matt Clifford. I’ll be...

Published on January 15, 2025 2:22 PM GMTThe first section describes problems with a few different alignment targets. The second section argues that it is useful to view all of them as variations of a single alignment target: building an AI that does what a Group wants that AI to do. The post then goes on to argue that all of the individual problems...

Published on January 15, 2025 2:08 PM GMTMy current outlook on LLMs is that they are some combination of bullshit to fool people who are looking to be fooled, and a modest but potentially very important improvement in the capacity to search large corpuses of text in response to uncontroversial natural-language queries and automatically summarize the results. Beyond this, I think they’re massively overhyped....

Published on January 15, 2025 6:45 AM GMTSometimes I see a comment I'd like to bookmark, but currently the only ways to save a comment are by subscribing to its replies (which sometimes produces unwanted notifications and requires me to check a different profile section than the rest of my bookmarks) or bookmarking the post it's attached to (which can be inconvenient for posts...

Published on January 15, 2025 6:11 AM GMTThis is an article in the featured articles series from AISafety.info. AISafety.info writes AI safety intro content. We'd appreciate any feedback. The most up-to-date version of this article is on our website, along with 300+ other articles on AI existential safety.There are many fictional stories that depict unaligned non-human entities in ways that can illustrate some aspects of...

Published on January 15, 2025 4:56 AM GMTThere is a view I’ve encountered somewhat often,[1] which can be summarized as follows: After the widespread deployment of advanced AGI, assuming humanity survives, material scarcity will largely disappear. Everyone will have sufficient access to necessities like food, housing, and other basic resources. Therefore, the only scarce resource remaining will be "social status". As a result, the primary activity...

Published on January 13, 2025 6:35 PM GMTMuch of this content originated on social media. To follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, Bluesky, or Farcaster.ContentsFrom me and RPIJobs and fellowshipsOther opportunitiesEventsQuestionsAnnouncementsCommentary on the wildfiresSam Altman: AI workers in 2025, superintelligence nextNever underestimate elasticity of supply“The earnestness and diligence of smart technical people”“Americans born on foreign soil”UndauntedEli Dourado’s model of policy changeStatsLinksAIInspirationPoliticsChina...

Published on January 13, 2025 3:05 PM GMTNote: Thank you to Surge Biswas (founder of Nabla Bio) for comments on this draft and and Dylan Reid (an investor into Nabla) for various antibody discussions! Also, thank you to Martin Pacesa for adding some insight on a paper of his I discuss here (his comments are included).IntroductionAntibody design startups are singlehandedly the most common archetype...

Published on January 13, 2025 2:31 PM GMTNote: I am a postdoc in fMRI neuroscience. I have been exploring LLMs for their use in fMRI research (e.g., extracting activations and mapping them onto brain data). To support this direction, I first did something of an interpretability study. This yielded some potentially interesting and surprising results on the emergent effects of scaling. I organized the...

Published on January 13, 2025 1:40 PM GMTNow that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the results at the end of the year, and look for lessons, patterns and highlights. Table of Contents The Rating Scale. The Numbers. Very Briefly on the Top Picks and Whether You Should See Them. Movies Have Decreasing Marginal...

Published on January 13, 2025 11:18 AM GMTIn this post we’ll be looking at the recent paper “Learning to grok: Emergence of in-context learning and skill composition in modular arithmetic tasks” by He et al. This post is partially a sequel to my earlier post on grammars and subgrammars, though it can be read independently. There will be a more technical part II.I really like this...

Published on January 13, 2025 2:57 AM GMTDepressive realism is the idea that depressed people have more accurate beliefs than the general population. It’s a common factoid in “things I learned” lists, and often posited as a matter of settled science.In this post, I’ll explore whether it’s true.Where It BeganThe depressive realism hypothesis was first studied by Lauren Alloy and Lyn Yvonne Abramson, in...

Published on January 13, 2025 1:23 AM GMTTraditional economics thinking has two strong principles, each based on abundant historical data:Principle (A): No “lump of labor”: If human population goes up, there might be some wage drop in the very short term, because the demand curve for labor slopes down. But in the longer term, people will find new productive things to do, such that...

Published on January 12, 2025 5:11 PM GMTI've been researching the controversy over whether antidepressants truly work or whether they are not superior to a placebo. The latter possibility really contains two possibilities itself: either placebos are effective at treating depression, or the placebo effect reflects mean reversion. Here, the term "antidepressant" refers to drugs classified as SSRIs and SNRIs.Some stylized facts from the...

Published on January 12, 2025 5:11 PM GMTIntroductionMagnetic reconnection—the sudden rearrangement of magnetic field lines—drives dramatic energy releases in astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Solar flares, tokamak disruptions, and magnetospheric substorms all hinge on reconnection. Usually, these events are uncontrolled and often destructive. But what if we could systematically harness reconnection here on Earth, funneling that released magnetic energy into an external circuit? This post...

Published on January 12, 2025 6:23 PM GMTFrom AI scientist to AI research fleetResearch automation is here (1, 2, 3). We saw it coming and planned ahead, which puts us ahead of most (4, 5, 6). But that foresight also comes with a set of outdated expectations that are holding us back. In particular, research automation is not just about “aligning the first AI...

Published on January 11, 2025 6:24 PM GMTMotivationI want a more concrete concept than AGI[1] to talk and write with. I want something more concrete because I am tired of the costs associated with how big, inferentially distant, and many-pathed the concept of AGI is, which makes conversation expensive. Accounting for the bigness, inferential distance, and many-pathed-ness is very important for dealing with AGI properly...

Published on January 11, 2025 2:43 PM GMTI decided, as a challenge to myself, to spend 5 minutes, by the clock, solving the alignment problem. This is the result, plus 25 minutes of writing it up. As such, it might be a bit unpolished, but I hope that it can still be instructive.Background This proposal is loosely based on iterated amplification, a proposal for training...

Published on January 11, 2025 3:22 AM GMTAnd by "we" I mean "I". I'm the one struggling.Agency with a 'y', basically means “The condition of being in action; operation.” Or the means or mode of acting, the context I hear it used most often is sociologically:"Agency is the capacity of individuals to have the power and resources to fulfill their potential." One's agency is one's...

Published on January 10, 2025 11:55 PM GMTWith LLM-based AI passing benchmarks that would challenge people with a Ph.D in relevant fields, I'm left wondering what they can do for real-world problems for which nobody knows the correct answer, such as how to treat potentially fatal medical conditions with no known cure. Are we at the point where AI can do better than curated...

Published on January 10, 2025 10:07 PM GMTThis post is to record the state of my thinking at the start of 2025. I plan to update these reflections in 6-12 months depending on how much changes in the field of AI.1. SummaryIt is best not to pause AI progress until at least one major AI lab achieves a system capable of providing approximately a...