~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (577)

I think it is AGI, seriously.  Try asking it lots of questions, and then ask yourself: just how much smarter was I expecting AGI to be? As I’ve argued in the past, AGI, however you define it, is not much of a social event per se.  It still will take us a long time to […] The post o3 and AGI, is April 16th...

1. Uh oh. 2. Very good list of bottlenecks to progress. 3. NYT on seasteading (an oddly undercontextualized article). 4. Shruti makes the Forward Thinkers list. 5. More on risk and business cycles. 6. How is a Costco in France different? The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Bob. The US freight rail system is very good....

“Based on everything I’ve ever asked you, what do you think my biggest blind spots are?” ChatGPT replies: Here’s a speculative, analytical take based on your past questions and style of interaction: 1. Underestimating Non-Market Frictions in Implementation You’re extremely sharp on incentives, regulation, and institutional design, especially in economic theory and historical analysis. But […] The post My Blind Spots appeared first on...

But the fact that it’s commonplace is precisely why Earth’s subsurface biosphere is so compelling.  Mud is everywhere, which means it is important.  If you add up the total amount of mud underneath all the worlds’s oceans, you come up with a volume equivalent to about the entire Atlantic Ocean.  And, per cubic meter, there […] The post Subterranean sentences to ponder appeared first...

With a Trump-induced decline of American alliances n the works, is Chinese global ascendancy going to result? It would seem so. Matt Yglesias tweeted that “America may be cooked and it’s gonna be the Chinese century.” Thomas Friedman recently wrote a column suggesting that the future is to be found in China, not America. In […] The post Is China the ultimate free-rider? appeared...

Times of London that is: The post My interview with Times Radio appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to LivelyClock. Yes, Prof here, I still like him, ... by AnoniIn reply to Matt2. “I'm Sure you can't be serious.” ... by mkt42In reply to LivelyClock. The finest part-time income ... by Cherie SingletonIn reply to Bob. What would you call the profiteering...

1. Scott Sumner on who is rising and falling in status.  Mostly I agree. 2. New personalized dating form for STEM men and women, here is the link for women.  The previous link I put up for men already is generating matches and perhaps a marriage as well. 3. Michael Nielsen wants to reconsider AI […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that the circulations of banned books increased by 12%, on average, compared with comparable nonbanned titles after the ban. We also find that banning a book in a state leads to increased circulation in states without bans. We show that the increase in consumption is driven by books […] The post Book ban sentences to ponder appeared...

Look at the incredible decline of manufacturing across a wide variety of industries in the figure below. Nearly 7.5 million jobs lost, just since 2011. Devastated communities. Factories shuttered. Millions of older, lower-skilled workers out of work. A rise in inequality. Jobs going overseas. “The future is bleak and hopeless if we continue like this,” […] The post The Decline of Manufacturing appeared first...

That is the theme of my latest Free Press column, here is one bit from it: …for all the differences across the models, they are remarkably similar. That’s because they all have souls rooted in the ideals of Western civilization. They reflect Western notions of rationality, discourse, and objectivity—even if they sometimes fall short in […] The post Will American soft power triumph through...

Harvard University said on Monday that it had rejected policy changes requested by the Trump administration, becoming the first university to directly refuse to comply with the administration’s demands and setting up a showdown between the federal government and the nation’s wealthiest university. Other universities have pushed back against the Trump administration’s interference in higher […] The post Harvard says no appeared first on...

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  John might be the smartest person I know about the energy sector and also about philanthropy.  Here is the opening of his Wikipedia entry: John Douglas Arnold (born 1974) is an American philanthropist, former Enron executive, and founder of Arnold Ventures LLC, formerly the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. In 2007, […] The post What should I ask John Arnold?...

1. ADHD diagnosis is a mess (NYT). 2. John Cochrane on tariffs, savings, and investment. 3. More on low productivity growth in construction. 4. Ken Rogoff is now on Substack. 5. DolphinGemma: How Google AI is helping decode dolphin communication. 6. Russian birth rates hit new low. 7. Out of date (a lot will be happening […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

An estimated 80 percent [of U.S: gun shootings] seem to instead be crimes of passion — including rage.  They’re arguments that could be defused but aren’t, then end in tragedy because someone has a gun.  Most violent crimes are the result of human behavior gone temporarily haywire, not premeditated acts for financial benefit. That is […] The post The roots of gun violence appeared...

“Philip Howard here.  I enjoyed your discussion with Jen Pahlka.  Here are a few notes: 1. This current system needs disrupting, but I fear DOGEs indiscriminate cuts are making the status quo look good.    Here’s Peter Drucker, criticizing Gore’s reinventing got:  “patching.  It always fails.  The next step is to rush into downsizing.  Management picks […] The post How to do regulatory reform (from...

Here is one article in Spanish, my favorite novel by him is War of the End of the World.  Aunt Julia and the Scripwriter is a wonderful introduction, and there are many other fine works. The post Muere Mario Vargas Llosa, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsRIP There are so many novels by him to cherish, but the book ... by RebesFrom...

1. 2013 paper on the economics of a “sudden stop” in lending to the United States.  Not what I think is going on now, but fyi. 2. Richer Swedes are getting healthier more quickly. 3. Incredible AI thread from Steve Jurvetson. 4. Lottery arbitrage? (WSJ) 5. What does a House of Representatives member do all […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Eventually, Smith declared himself a candidate for the White House.  His proposed platform was an awkward conglomeration of popular, though incongruent, principles including restoring the national bank, cutting Congress members’ salaries, annexing Texas, and instituting the gradual abolition of slavery.  Hundreds of Mormon men, including Brigham Young, swarmed the nation campaigning for their prophet to […] The post I never knew Joseph Smith ran...

How does a start-up founder hire a software engineer or a tech worker find a date in 2025? They could share a job posting on LinkedIn, log on to a dating app — or leave a handwritten note in a Waymo. That’s what Influur CEO Alessandra Angelini was thinking when she and Jennifer Lo Chan, […] The post Markets expand to fill empty spaces...

Max writes to me: “Hope you’re doing well. And the craziness in the world hasn’t been affecting you too much. I know I’ve written to you about cash-treasury basis a couple of times over the years. The situation has unfortunately become somewhat more acute and has started to get wider media attention. There are some good accounts […] The post Problems in Treasury markets (from my...

1. New Knausgaard novel coming. 2. Unsecured penguin caused helicopter crash in South Africa. 3. Why does pre-training work? 4. Opinion polling from Poland. 5. Survey measures of the natural rate of interest.  Thread is here. 6. Cass Sunstein reports on the social neuroticism of the Right.  And Balaji is correct. 7. The conservative legal […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

If you are willing to pay $250 or so, you can watch it in The Sphere.  From Wikipedia: Postcard from Earth is a 2023 film directed by Darren Aronofsky, starring Brandon Santana and Zaya Ribeiro. Created specifically to be screened at Sphere in the Las Vegas Valley on the venue’s 160,000 square-foot video screen, the film was shot in an 18K […] The post *Postcard from Earth* appeared first on...

That is the topic of my recent essay for The Free Press.  Excerpt: Ideologically, the English 17th century was weird above all else. Millenarianism blossomed, and the occult and witchcraft became stronger obsessions. This was an age of religious and economic upheaval; King James I even wrote a book partly about witches called Daemonologie. The greater […] The post Parallels between our current time and...

The National Institutes of Health told employees Thursday it was rolling back directives from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to probe worker productivity and limit purchases and travel on company cards, according to messages obtained by POLITICO. It’s a possible sign that the agency’s recently confirmed director, Jay Bhattacharya, is willing to break with […] The post It seems DOGE is dwindling? appeared...