~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (572)

The post Jony Ive and Patrick Collison appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Chezzy. His publishing career of non-rigorous ... by AnonIve hasn't been relevant in 20 years and he built his career on ... by AnonIn reply to Agreed. Tyler also roleplays characters in his ... by AgreedIn reply to Agreed. I get paid more than $90 to $120 per...

Has taken a class in real analysis. The post The new Pope appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Student. From Twitter: The new Pope has a ... by KieranIn reply to MikeP. I get paid more than $90 to $120 per hour ... by AnnaThe Chicago Pope has already issued his first Papal Bull. ... by KieranIn reply to Jimenez. The...

From Noah Smith: Trade deficits are an even smaller amount of GDP. U.S. imports of manufactured goods minus exports are equal to about 4% of GDP per year. Our trade deficit with China is about 1% of GDP. In terms of imported components, America manufactures most of what it uses in production. China’s exports to […] The post Globalization did not hollow out the...

1. Reasons to write for the LLMs. 2. Astral Codex on Moldbug. 3. How the US built 5000 ships during WWII. 4. Using machine learning to understand chimpanzee social negotiation. 5. Okie dokie, and some more okie dokie. 6. “Government spending as a share of GDP in Argentina fell from 22.3 to 15.6% in Javier […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

Joe Nocera has a strange piece in the Free Press arguing that the “godfathers of protectionism” have been vindicated. It begins with a story about how Dani Rodrik couldn’t get a famous economist to endorse his book Has Globalization Gone Too Far? because doing so would arm the barbarians. Well give that reluctant economist a […] The post This is Vindication??? appeared first on...

Research-intensive pharmaceutical companies have also warned that low prices paid by European health systems are driving new drug discovery efforts to the US and China. China.  Here is the FT source, with plenty of interesting additional information.  It is a common charge that libertarians or classical liberals had no suggested remedy for the growing U.S. […] The post Avoiding pharma dependence on China appeared...

This was great fun and I learned a lot, here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Jack and Tyler explore which parts of the economy AGI will affect last, where AI will encounter the strongest legal obstacles, the prospect of AI teddy bears, what AI means for the […] The post My excellent Conversation with Jack Clark...

1. Interview with Galen Strawson, including about panpsychism. 2. Botched Dublin pipe bomb drone attack, neighborly feud edition.  Solve for the equilibrium. 3. Claims that spicy food is good for you. 4. Unparalleled misalignments.  Amazing what people will spend time on. 5. Why didn’t tariffs help the dollar? 6. Reforming naval shipbuilding. 7. The cardinals […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Polymarket, on the chances of a nuclear weapon being used in 2025.  Currently at 17.  Here is further analysis from o3. The post Betting markets in everything appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Allen. haha, the reactionaries finally get one ... by &Oh my god, Tyler's brain has truly dissolved in the acid of ... by JamesIn reply to EBUG. Everybody...

Not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China. Then it started to disappear. Land sales measures, foreign investment data and unemployment indicators have gone dark in recent years. Data on cremations and a business confidence index have been cut off. Even official soy sauce production reports are gone. […] The post China missing facts of the day...

A majority of Britons may now consider themselves neurodivergent, meaning they have a condition such as autism, dyslexia or dyspraxia, according to a leading psychologist. Francesca Happé, professor of cognitive neuroscience at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at King’s College London, said reduced stigma around these conditions had led more people both to […] The post UK estimate of the day appeared...

From the abstract: Our sample is individuals in the Health and Retirement Study who are aged 51 to 54 at baseline and are followed for up to two decades. We find that limitations in most domains have increased for younger cohorts, especially pain and cognitive impairment. People are more impaired in their 50s, where such […] The post Are recent cohorts in worse health?...

1. Writing an economics paper using LLMs entirely.  Sort of. 2. The most beautiful words in the English language? The o3 list is better. 3. The macroeconomics of tariffs and retaliation.  The real news here is the claim that, in the absence of foreign retaliation, the tariffs will make America better off.  Typically I am […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) recently tweeted that they wanted to bring back apparel manufacturing to the United States. Why would anyone want more jobs with long hours and low pay, whether historically in the US or currently in places like Bangladesh? Thanks in part to international trade, the real price of […] The post Has Clothing Declined in Quality? appeared...

The Hollywood Reporter has a good piece on Trump’s proposed movie tariffs: Even if such a tariff were legal — and there is some debate about whether Trump has the authority to impose such levies — industry experts are baffled as to how, in practice, a “movie tariff” would work. “What exactly does he want […] The post Tabarrok on the Movie Tariff appeared...

Guatemala has a slight edge on GNP per capita, according to World Bank sources $5762 vs. $5391, noting the gap has grown a bit since these 2023 measurements. When I visited El Salvador, people spoke enviously of the economy of Guatemala.  Over the last twenty-two years, the gdp growth rate in Guatemala has averaged 3.5%, […] The post Guatemala vs. El Salvador appeared first...

The United Arab Emirates will introduce artificial intelligence to the public school curriculum this year, as the Gulf country vies to become a regional powerhouse for AI development. The subject will be rolled out in the 2025-2026 academic year for kindergarten pupils through to 12th grade, state-run news agency WAM reported on Sunday. The course […] The post Who’s next? appeared first on Marginal...

With the far right ascendant in much of the west, it is notable that Latin America is not turning the same way, to a Trumpian closed economy. It is favouring leaders with more traditional agendas, based on free markets and open economies. This increases the region’s chances of escaping its damaging growth slump and attracting […] The post Latin America is swinging to the...

Instead of re-opening Alcatraz as super-max prison we should build a statue to America. I suggest “Lady Liberty of the Pacific”. The spirit of Columbia ala John Gast’s American Progress carrying a welcoming beacon-lamp in her raised right hand and a coiled fibre-optic cable in her left representing Bay Area technology. The post Lady Liberty of the Pacific appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.        ...

1. John Arnold on Enron. 2. On architecture for federal buildings (Bloomberg). 3. Chess players rely too much on familiar moves. 4. The right populist candidate did very well in the first round in the Romanian election. 5. More and more of Reddit is from LLMs. 6. Gold comes from magnetars? 7. Trump proposes eliminating the […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

This study examines publications in three leading general economics journals from the 1960s through the 2020s, considering levels and trends in the demographics of authors, methodologies of the studies, and patterns of co-authorship. The average age of authors has increased nearly steadily; there has been a sharp increase in the fraction of female authors; the […] The post How are economics publications changing? appeared...

Between 1 and 5% of all work hours are currently assisted by generative AI, and respondents report time savings equivalent to 1.4% of total work hours. That is from a 2025 paper by Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming. The post AI-assisted time saved at work so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to DJ. Google paid $95 a...

Ari Dutilh is a 19-year-old entrepreneur, community builder, and photographer.  This grant is to help continue our work on UltraRice, a project to solve malnutrition in India by using ultrasonic treatment to create cost-effective, nutrient-scalable rice. Rukmini S is Founder and Director of Data For India. Rukmini is an award-winning data journalist and won her first […] The post Emergent Ventures, 9th India cohort appeared...

Here is one link.  Of course the proposal is not easy to understand.  If it is a Jason Bourne movie, do they add up the number of scenes shot abroad and consider those as a percentage of the entire movie?  Does one scene shot abroad invoke the entire tariff?  o3 guesstimates that about half of […] The post Trump proposes 100% tariff on movies...