Bookmarks (551)

As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms society, understanding factors that influence AI receptivity is increasingly important. The current research investigates which types of consumers have greater AI receptivity. Contrary to expectations revealed in four surveys, cross country data and six additional studies find that people with lower AI literacy are typically more receptive to AI. This lower […] The post Lower Artificial Intelligence Literacy Predicts Greater...

1. Trump repeals the Biden Executive Order on AI. 2. Artificial Intelligence Asset Pricing Models. 3. No concrete news on tariffs is good news. 4. Less post-training on DeepSeek? And other claims about DeepSeek.  And yet further claims — ask o1 pro to explain it to you! 5. Are there national security risks to a […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Crypto regulation is likely to change very rapidly. I expect that SAB 121 will be overturned, perhaps even today. Overturning SAB 121 wouldn’t even be controversial because, as I wrote earlier, Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate both voted to overturn SAB 121 which was saved only by Biden’s veto. Essentially, SAB 121 made […] The post Keep an Eye on Crypto Regulation...

That is a Bloomberg column of mine from about two weeks ago.  I thought it would make more sense to people if I did not blog it right away.  Here is one bit: Now the world knows that a very high-quality AI system can be trained for a relatively small sum of money. That could […] The post What should AI policy learn from...

I’m a long-time reader and first-time emailer. I just read your blog post from earlier this month about privatizing public services like water and electric utilities. My colleague Glen Lyons and I are developing a way to introduce more competition into the electricity sector, which some believe to be hopelessly uncompetitive. The idea is to allow new, […] The post Travis Fisher on electricity privatization (from...

I was democracy-pilled by reading biographies of Franco and Salazar. The Iberian countries in the 1930’s were what every right-wing authoritarian fantasizes about: vigorous young conservative dictators firmly in charge of a country, liberals totally defeated and out of power. Both were able to stay in power for decades. The result? For a while they […] The post The case for democracy (from the...

1. Is Vietnam following some aspects of Milei? 2. Piketty and Sandel on what went wrong for the Left (NYT). 3. The wisdom of Ross Douthat: “A key paragraph in an @arisroussinos piece on Keir Starmer’s fading worldview, with applications to Canada among other nations; the attempted de-nationalization of 2nd-tier powers by their own elites actually leaves […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

DeepSeek-R1 is here.  Try it — it is amazing, free and open source.  Go to the main site and press “DeepThink” for superior performance.  Marginal cost remains difficult to measure, but almost certainly far cheaper than the main models.  A big day, most of all for Africa.  Some commentary.  Here is the research paper.  Here […] The post DeepThink from DeepSeek appeared first on...

The conversation between Henry Oliver and Hollis Robbins about Atlas Shrugged as a novel is excellent. I enjoyed especially the discussion of some of the minor characters and the meaning of their story arcs. Hollis: There are some really wonderful minor characters. One of them is Cherryl Taggart, this shop girl that evil Jim Taggart meets one […] The post Atlas Shrugged as Novel appeared first...

I said that to Ezra Klein about the current rightward vibes shift.  What are some of the scenarios I had in mind?: 1. If the Republicans regulate social media companies to discriminate less against “the Right,” those regulations may someday be used against them. 2. Personal presidential issuance of crypto assets is not always (ever?) […] The post “Be careful what you wish for,...

1. “AIs exceed humans on every major creativity test we give them, like the Torrence Test, but it isn’t clear what exactly that means.”  And in Turing tests, GPT-4 is judged more human than the humans. 2. Inference Magazine, a new magazine about AI progress. 3. Determinism continues to look more plausible. 4. NYT interviews […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

In July of 2024, Tyler Cowen, the economist and cultural commentator, wrote a blog post that proved to be among the election’s most prescient. It was titled “The change in vibes — why did they happen?” Cowen’s argument was that mass culture was moving in a Trumpian direction. Among the tributaries flowing into the general shift: the […] The post Ezra Klein on the vibe shift...

The results of the randomized evaluation, soon to be published, reveal overwhelmingly positive effects on learning outcomes. After the six-week intervention between June and July 2024, students took a pen-and-paper test to assess their performance in three key areas: English language—the primary focus of the pilot—AI knowledge, and digital skills. Students who were randomly assigned […] The post More on the AI virtual tutor...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: Another reason to write for the LLMs is to convince them that you are important. Admittedly this is conjecture, but it might make them more likely to convey your ideas in the future. Think of how this works with humans. If you […] The post Should you be writing for the...

Here is some video. The post The second attempted coup d’etat was partially successful appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsFor the past four years the US government was, well, self ... by DismalistThis is misleading. Biden did not pause the exports, he paused ... by Newt EcherHi this is Tyler Cowen, I am pleased to announce that Naveen ... by Tyler CowenRelated StoriesThinking...

1. Is it bureaucratically hard to give away the Chagos Islands? 2. New Bloomberg results on NYC congestion. 3. George Eliot and tech. 4. Samuel Butler’s Erewhon: “The writer went on to say that he anticipated a time when it would be possible, by examining a single hair with a powerful microscope, to know whether […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

A new paper in the QJE, The Global Race for Talent: Brain Drain, Knowledge Transfer, and Growth, by Marta Prato uses extensive data on inventors and their migration to make the following points. (i) gross migration is asymmetric, with brain drain (net emigration) from the EU to the United States; (ii) migrants increase their patenting […] The post A Galt’s Gulch for Talent appeared...

I really enjoyed your piece on USPS privatization. I recently wrote about the subject too. Even in the absence of privatization, relaxing the mail monopoly and allowing competition would make for better, more reliable mail services. This is true even in countries with a “national champion”-style carrier subject to a universal service obligation. It appears that, over […] The post Ross Marchand on postal service privatization...

Timur Kuran is right, they have no business doing this.  Furthermore the quality of the work is not befitting an AEA journal.  Demonstrated preference is not stressed, for instance that even survey respondents are about 10x more likely to be reading Twitter than BlueSky.  Maybe it is all a network effect and they would prefer […] The post The AEA is making social media...

In your recent conversation with Misha Saul, you and Misha discussed your joint dislike for Leviticus. I can’t say that I find Leviticus a page-turner, but the book that’s done the most to help me understand why it’s important and what role it plays in the movement of the narrative is L Michael Morales’s book Who […] The post Corin Wagen defends Leviticus (from my...

1. The sad beige aesthetic. 2. More on AI boyfriends and girlfriends (NYT). 3. “…free dog-sitting services now offered at major cultural landmarks, including Rome’s MAXXI Museum and Florence’s Uffizi, art lovers no longer have to choose between culture and their canine companions.” TNSSJ. 4. “New randomized, controlled trial of students using GPT-4 as a tutor […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

Do minimum wage changes affect workplace health and safety? Using the universe of workers’ compensation claims in California over 2000-2019, we estimate whether minimum wage shocks affect the rate of workplace injuries. Our identification exploits both geographic variation in state-and city-level minimum wages and local occupation-level variation in exposure to minimum wage changes. We find […] The post Gordon Tullock was right appeared first...

I wrote this paper several years ago when preparing for my CWT with Emily Wilson.  It is now being published by Liberty Fund, in parts.  Here is part I.  Here is an excerpt from the introduction: In this series, I will use an economic approach to better understand the implicit politics and economics in The Odyssey. […] The post An Economic Approach to Homer’s Odyssey:...

That is the topic of a recent Bloomberg column.  Here is the opening bit: One of the longest, most technical and, as it turns out, most inconsequential public-policy debates of the 21st century was about net neutrality. Now that a federal appeals court has effectively ended the debate by striking down the FCC’s net neutrality rules, it’s worth asking what […] The post Net neutrality, we hardly knew ye...

1. “We show that same-sex couples experience lower gains from live-in relationships, a “same-sex penalty”. Absent this penalty, the share of same-sex couples in the U.S. would increase by about 50% (from 1.36% to 2.05% of all couples).”  Link here. 2. Vatsal reviews Stubborn Attachments. 3. Share repurchases do not hurt labor’s share of income. […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (Netflix) is one of the best and best-crafted documentaries that I have ever seen. It tells the story of Mats Steen, a Norwegian boy living with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. As the disease relentlessly robs him of mobility, Mats turns to the online world, spending much of his time immersed in […] The post The Remarkable Life of Ibelin appeared...

One More Hospitality Restaurants The New York company will refund $9 to diners driving into the city for meals at four of its Greenwich Village restaurants. That includes Italian restaurant Osteria 57, Italian seafood restaurant Alice, Italian cafe Travelers Poets & Friends, and also-Italian seafood restaurant Alaluna. Osteria: 57 West 10th Street near Sixth Avenue; Alice: 126 West 13th Street […] The post Tax incidence theory and congestion tolls...

Well one thing that comes up is the Diego Garcia problem. It appears that Downing Street opted to relinquish sovereignty of an isolated territory remote from major population centers for reasons of domestic politics and perhaps international popularity. As long as we might (continue to) see a major gulf between American and European norms regarding […] The post Thinking about Greenland critically (from the...

That is the new Agnes Callard book, very good, self-recommending. I would say my views on some of these issues are different.  In my vision, Socrates is a weak interlocutor and Plato is the real genius.  Plato also does not identify with Socrates per se, but rather is teaching us how to deal with a […] The post *Open Socrates: The Case for a...

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  He is a famous brain surgeon and author of the recent and excellent book Gray Matters: A Biography of Brain Surgery. Here is his Wikipedia page, and an opening excerpt: Theodore H. Schwartz (born May 13, 1965) is an American medical scientist, academic physician and neurosurgeon. Schwartz specializes in surgery for brain tumors, pituitary […] The post What should I ask Theodore H....

1. Scenario for an independent Greenland. 2. Gender gaps in the Federal Reserve System. 3. Zvi on congestion pricing in NYC. 4. A short (pronunciation) saga from Kearny, NJ, the place of my birth. 5. Milei is artificially slowing the devaluation of the peso (FT). 6. Henry Farrell on America’s plan to control global AI […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

There is a new paper by Florian Ederer, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, and Kyle Jensen.  It concerns what happens on EJMR, and abusive rhetoric in on line economic discourse.  I have not yet read it, but very likely it is of interest.  Here is the direct paper link. The post Anonymous Attention and Abuse appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Florian Ederer. Thank...

I do not myself have a position on this issue, but I found this analysis by Ken Opalo interesting: The main argument below is that while the people of Somaliland deserve and have a strong case for international recognition, such a development at this time would very likely take away the very incentives that have set them […] The post Should the U.S. recognize Somaliland? appeared...

It is commonly assumed that the U.S. “acquiring” Greenland, whatever that might mean, will result in greater U.S. control of the territory.  Along some dimensions that is likely.  But it is worth pondering the equilibrium here more seriously. I observe, in many locations around the world, that indigenous groups end up with far more bargaining […] The post Some game theory of Greenland appeared...

1. Stephen Miran makes the case for twenty percent tariffs (WSJ).  You can run this one through o1 pro yourself. 2. The history of export controls on IP. 3. Jacob Trefethen, on reforming science funding. 4. In ex-Soviet States, the mental health of the young seems fine. 5. New Ashlee Vance sci-tech media venture.  Site […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

It’s well known that the voting methods we use are highly defective, as they fail to meet fundamental criteria like positive responsiveness, the Pareto principle, and stability. Positive responsiveness (monotonicity) means that if a candidate improves on some voters’ ballots, this should not reduce the candidate’s chances of winning. Yet, many voting methods, including runoffs […] The post The Borda Count is the Best...

Yes, I will be having a Conversation with him.  Gregory Clark the economist.  Here is his Wikipedia page.  So what should I ask? The post What should I ask Greg Clark? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Atom. Ah, you've listed some thought-provoking ... by Windom EarleIn reply to Atom. is that it's a bunch of junk science. His ... by...

Is the top tail of wealth a set of fixed individuals or is there substantial turnover? We estimate upper-tail wealth dynamics during the Gilded Age and beyond, a time of rapid wealth accumulation and concentration in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Using various wealth proxies and data tracking tens of millions of individuals, […] The post The circulation of elites, sort of...

14. You don’t do anyone any favors by lurking, put yourself out there! 15. If you don’t “get” a classic book or movie, 90% of the time it’s your fault. (It might just not be the right time for you to appreciate that thing.) 16. If you find yourself dreading Mondays, quit… 23. Doing things […] The post Principles, from Nabeel appeared first on...

1. Cairo norms and multiple equilibria? 2. Straussian, clever language though not as sharp as the Everly Brothers.  I wish them the best. 3. The declining influence of economists in policy circles (NYT). 4. ChinaTalk on DeepSeek. 5. Weird things going on in Romania, poorly understood. 6. One good way to prompt o1. 7. The […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

Jay Martin writes a provocative post, Has Canada Become a Jamaican Bobsled Team? if Canada were to become a state, it would be the third poorest in the country, right behind Alabama. Everybody talks about the American debt issue, but Canadian households bear more debt relative to their income than any other G7 country. The average Canadian now spends 15% of their […] The post Canada’s Comparative Advantages appeared first on...

Here is Daron Acemoglu’s Project Syndicate piece, mostly critical on high-skilled immigration. Here is the first argument from Acemoglu: …one would expect corporate America’s growing need for skilled STEM workers to translate into advocacy for, and investments in, STEM education. But an overreliance on the H-1B program may have broken this link and made American […] The post The Acemoglu arguments against high-skilled immigration...

I would say we have not yet figured out what is the best U.S. policy toward Greenland, nor have we figured out best stances for either Greenland or Denmark. I am struck however by the low quality of the debate, and I mean on the anti-U.S. side most of all.  This is just one clip, […] The post The Greenland debates appeared first on...

I had fun, and Andrew writes: In this episode, I got a chance to talk with Tyler about quite a few of those topics: the extent of his libertarian ideology, why he’s less pessimistic about social media, what movies have influenced him, etc. Here is the Spotify link. The post My podcast with Andrew Xu appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsComments 

1. Cracks in the silence about Havana Syndrome (Atlantic). 2. “As Rainer Zitelmann, a noted historian of the Third Reich, has pointed out, the AfD has long since abandoned its former economic liberalism for a Right-wing form of anti-capitalism. Its rhetoric is often indistinguishable from that of the far-Left Die Linke, or the Left populist […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

First, the labor market is no longer polarizing— employment in low- and middle-paid occupations has declined, while highly paid employment has grown. Second, employment growth has stalled in low-paid service jobs. Third, the share of employment in STEM jobs has increased by more than 50 percent since 2010, fueled by growth in software and computer-related […] The post Facts about U.S. employment appeared first...

From John Ruffalo. The post Canada’s missing entrepreneurs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesFacts about U.S. employmentThe sick leave culture that is GermanEvolving Returns to Personality 

From Krzysztof Tyszka-Drozdowski: Every weekend, I try to go through interesting articles about Argentina. Here’s something from La Nación that surprised me: it discusses the relatively weak standing of Argentine companies internationally. (https://www.lanacion.com.ar/opinion/las-empresas-argentinas-ante-un-cambio-de-perfil-nid11012025/): – only 3 of the top 50 largest Latin American companies are Argentine (22 are Brazilian, 14 Mexican, and 8 Chilean). Moreover, only […] The post Companies in Argentina (from my email)...

As I kept watching, I was thinking “well, this is pretty good but it isn’t great.”  But by the time the final scene rolled around, I was convinced.  A few points: 1. The Hungarian wife is the best character. 2. The title “The Brutalist” does not refer solely to the architect. 3. The industrial landscapes […] The post *The Brutalist* (no real spoilers) appeared...

With Liz Wolfe and Zach Weissmueller: The link here contains the YouTube video, text description, and links to audio versions at reason.com: https://reason.com/podcast/2025/01/10/tyler-cowen-why-do-we-refuse-to-learn-from-history/ Youtube page for embedding is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-Kpyg2mFU8 Lots of about libertarianism and state capacity libertarianism, and The Great Forgetting, food at the end…interesting throughout! The post My podcast with Reason appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesMarthaOne early report on congestion pricing in...