~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (560)

There is an enormous and growing discussion on AI alignment, but very little on capitalizing AIs, and what effects that might have.  By capitalizing AIs, I mean simply requiring them to hold some wealth, in whichever form they might care about, so they have proverbial “skin in the game” (can we still call it that?). […] The post Alignment vs. capitalization appeared first on...

Let us hope.  Via Ben Klutsey. The post Some modest Congressional rebellion against Trump tariffs? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Pillow Lasers. Biden had one of the slimmest ... by SureIn reply to Luka. Your sentences don't sound very patriotic ... by Noah RocksIn reply to j mct. The problem with the strategy of ... by SureIn reply to Pillow...

1. Why it is hard to make a deal with Greenland.  They don’t trust us, surprise, surprise. 2. Buying sunglasses in Brazil. 3. Fashion as a recession indicator (speculative). 4. Awesome.  And is this 400 pp. USTR report written by AI? 5. “We’re launching the Centre for British Progress.” 6. Works in Progress, pieces they […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

The textbook case for industrial policy is well understood: sectors with relatively large external economies of scale should be subsidized at the expense of other sectors. Little is known, however, about the magnitude of the welfare gains from such interventions. We develop an empirical strategy that leverages commonly available trade data to estimate sector-level economies […] The post How strong is the best case...

In any case, we will be moving into a future with higher prices, less product choice, and much weaker foreign alliances. The tanking of the stock market, and other possible asset price repercussions, may tip America into recession and increase joblessness. This is perhaps the worst economic own goal I have seen in my lifetime. […] The post Yours truly on the Trump tariffs...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and Sheilagh discuss the economic impacts of historical pandemics, the “happy story” of the Black Death and why it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, the history of variolation and how entrepreneurs created vaccination franchises in 18th-century England, why local communities […] The post My Conversation with the excellent Sheilagh...

President Donald Trump has told his inner circle, including members of his Cabinet, that Elon Musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role as governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man… Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his […] The post Elon to retreat from DOGE appeared...

1. More on deep learning in economics. 2. A history of indirect cost in U.S. science funding. 3. Joshua Rothman on whether “we” (they!) are taking AI seriously enough (New Yorker). 4. More Scott Sumner movie reviews. 5. Martha Argerich profile (NYT). 6. The fight over Ayn Rand’s estate.  Mostly about Peikoff. 7. Subscribe to […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

In Don’t Let the FDA Regulate Lab Tests! and The New FDA and the Regulation of Laboratory Developed Tests I warned that the FDA’s power grab over laboratory developed tests was both unlawful and likely to result in deadly harm (as it did during COVID). Thus, I am pleased that a Federal judge has vacated […] The post Federal Judge Rejects FDA Power Grab...

How good is AI at persuading humans to perform costly actions? We study calls made to get delinquent consumer borrowers to repay. Regression discontinuity and a randomized experiment reveal that AI is substantially less effective than human callers. Replacing AI with humans six days into delinquency closes much of the gap. But borrowers initially contacted […] The post How Good is AI at Twisting...

Toward Bubble Clarity: An American Economic Review article by Jianjun Miao and Pengfei Wang purports to “provide a theory of rational stock price bubbles.” Here, Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda argue that Miao and Wang’s ‘bubble’ talk is inapt. It is more appropriate to interpret their model as one of multiple fundamental equilibria, where all equilibrium asset […] The post New issue of Econ Journal Watch...

1. Inside arXiv. 2. Focal dystonia. 3. Jason Furman goes all Don Boudreaux (NYT). 4. Nabeel podcast with Jackson Dahl, with transcript.  And also from Nabeel, people preferred the AI translation. 5. George Borjas now at the CEA, click on staff. 6. Which restaurants have the most attractive diners? 7. The funeral Claude Shannon planned […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

This is from the Free Press website, written by me, so I will not indent: The Free Press is where I have decided to make my new intellectual home. In a rapidly changing world, I feel The Free Press is the correct base for me, and it has the audience I wish to reach. First, The Free Press is a […] The post The Free Press appeared first on...

The NYTimes has an excellent piece by Kate Morgan on AI discovering new uses for old drugs: A little over a year ago, Joseph Coates was told there was only one thing left to decide. Did he want to die at home, or in the hospital? Coates, then 37 and living in Renton, Wash., was […] The post AI Discovers New Uses for Old...

Browser data from an approximately representative sample of individual investors offers a detailed account of their search for information, including how much time they spend on stock research, which stocks they research, what categories of information they seek, and when they gather information relative to events and trades. The median individual investor spends approximately six […] The post The Research Behavior of Individual Investors...

After two years at Harvard, I had finished all of my graduate school courses and oral (!) exams.  Then I had a compulsion for what I should do next, something that at the time appeared remarkably stupid, although it worked out very well for me. At some critical points in my life I have made […] The post Living in Freiburg, Germany appeared first...

Schools in Beijing will introduce AI courses and teaching methods into the primary and secondary school curriculum starting September, to nurture young talent and boost growth in the advancing sector. In a statement shared on its official website on Friday (Mar 7), Chinese education authorities said schools would “explore and build” AI courses while incorporating […] The post China AI mandate of the day...

1. Australia fact of the day: “In 2023-24, for the first time, Australia spent more on in-kind benefits (e.g. the NDIS) than on transfers.” 2. Fine-tuned chatbots seem to work as well as humans for mental health treatments in this RCT. 3. The decline in publicly listed companies is microcaps. 4. The pro-natalist movement in […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

I’ve been shouting Sell! for many years. Perhaps now is the chance to do it. Here’s a recap: The Federal Government owns more than half of Oregon, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and Alaska and it owns nearly half of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Wyoming. See the map (PDF) for more [N.B. the vast majority of this land is […] The post Sell Floyd Bennett Field! appeared first...

The New York Times has described her recent Onyx Storm as the bestselling adult book of the last twenty years, as the work sold 2.7 million copies in the first week of publication.  Out of curiosity I started the book, but it is not for me.  It feels like reading a computer game?  Grok 3 […] The post Rebecca Yarros and the vibe shift...

This is all from Andrew Mitrak, I will not double indent: “Back in January, I listened to your interview on the Frames of Space podcast. You shared some advice that I haven’t seen you share elsewhere, so I’m pasting a transcript below here (transcribed with Gemini 2.5 Pro) Host: Do you see podcasts in general, especially podcasts […] The post Start your podcast (from my email)...

Peter Navarro is arguing that the pending tariffs will raise $600 billion a year, which might make them the biggest tax increase in U.S: history.  I am completely against this!  And for reasons I (and Alex) have explained over the years in dozens of MR posts. I would like to point out one thing, however, […] The post Consistency on taxes and tariffs appeared...

1. “Our results suggest that the recent stagnation of the college wage premium primarily reflects demand factors, specifically a slowdown in the pace of skill biased technological change.” 2. The Zvi on Gemini 2.5.  I agree it is very strong. 3. Very old interview with Hrishikesh Mukherjee. 4. Does Boulez still matter? A good talk, […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

For a brief moment in the mid-1950s, it seemed as if Liverpool’s transportation system was about to be revolutionised, not by cars, trams, buses or ferries, but instead by helicopters.  As strange as it may seem, Liverpool was at the forefront of a flurry of interest from planners and politicians who imagined that an age […] The post That was then, this is now...