~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (560)

A big chunk of it is coming from the health care sector.  Information and communications are not growing in productivity as rapidly as before, and Britain has done less well boosting productivity with tech and also in oil and gas extraction.  Here is the thread, here is the underlying study from the Resolution Foundation.  This […] The post Britain’s productivity problem appeared first on...

Robin Hanson, citing Agnes Callard, asks that question.  He writes: They said (my summary) that we have many standard roles, tools, and scripts to guide practical inquiry, that we have little need to inquire into deep topics, and that social talk is often of short duration, has norms of impracticality and frequent topic changes, is […] The post Why not inquire together more? appeared...

That is my latest piece for The Free Press, here is one excerpt: It is not merely that the policies keep on changing. We are seeing that the policies didn’t have much of a rational basis to begin with. Exactly how were all those threatened tariff rates calculated to begin with? A debate is raging […] The post A contagion of uncertainty appeared first...

1. Various Medicaid budget dilemmas (NYT).  A lot is at stake here, though since there are no major personalities involved, this and related stories is not getting much coverage. 2. New claims about string theory. 3. America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back. 4. Profile of Emily Oster. 5. Rationalism vs. empiricism in the […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

It has become popular in some circles to argue that trade—or, in the more “sophisticated” version, that the dollar’s reserve-currency status—undermines U.S. manufacturing. In reality, there is little support for this claim. Let’s begin with some simple but often overlooked points. The US is a manufacturing powerhouse. We produce $2.5 trillion of value-added in manufacturing […] The post Manufacturing and Trade appeared first on...

Via Basil Halperin.  This is not a question of confusing causation and correlation, if anything it is the protectionists who have such an error in their mind’s eye.  These days the average U.S. service sector job pays more than a manufacturing job. The post Manufacturing share vs. GDP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to dearieme. I essentially make about $9,000-$13,000 ......

Worth a redux, here is one excerpt: While I try my best to understand the New Right, I am far from being persuaded. One worry I have is about how it initially negative emphasis feeds upon itself. Successful societies are based on trust, including trust in leaders, and the New Right doesn’t offer resources for […] The post My 2022 piece on the New...

We find that only 15.1 percent of the decline in goods-sector employment from 1992 to 2012 stems from U.S. trade deficits; most of the decline is due to differential productivity growth. Here is the full paper by Kehoe, Ruhl, and Steinberg, via Zack Mazlish.  I believe we have covered this issue before. The post Tariff sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.        ...

Deirdre McCloskey, can you guess which book?  See #197.  I might add the text to that one is remarkably non-salacious, perhaps many readers were somewhat disappointed. Via the excellent CW. The post One economist removed from the Naval library appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.      Related StoriesMy Conversation with the excellent Sheilagh OgilvieFederal Judge Rejects FDA Power GrabAI Discovers New Uses for Old Drugs 

1. How do people perceive international trade? (redux from a few years ago) 2. Mice exhibit first aid behaviors. 3. What we are learning about the geology of northeastern North America.  An interesting piece. 4. Recent ReStud paper on trade imbalances. 5. “Two directors of the Charles Rennie Mackintosh Society have been accused of “vandalism” […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

The Emerging Scholars Program is a new initiative of the Mercatus Center, aimed at supporting early-career classical-liberal thinkers who are committed to focusing on an original research project that is well-defined, shows strong potential to further classical liberal ends, and is ready to be started or continued. Through the program, Mercatus will hire a full […] The post Mercatus Emerging Scholar initiative appeared first...

Jack Skidmore writes to me, and I will not double indent: “Hello Tyler, As someone who follows AI developments with interest (though I’m not a technical expert), I had an insight about AI safety that might be worth considering. It struck me that we might be overlooking something fundamental about what makes humans special and […] The post Coordination and AI safety (from my...

Here on Spotify.  Here on Apple Music.  Here on YouTube.  Here is my previous post on Matthes and his efforts. The post Nikolaus Matthes finishes The Art of the Fugue appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI'm all for this, just as I am in favor of architectural ... by FazeI prefer to go farther back ... by mega mikeIn reply to Equestrian. LETS...

1. “15k researchers are working on AGI, in America. We have more people working on AGI then the whole world combined. Be grateful to those researchers putting in 7 day work weeks” Link here. 2. From Glenn: “People still don’t seem to appreciate that official trade figures don’t include the U.S.’ largest “exports” to the […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Many people think they understand why domestic prices rise with tariffs–domestic producers take advantage of reduced competition to jack up prices and increase their profits. The explanation seems cynical and sophisticated and its not entirely wrong but it misses deeper truths. Moreover, this “explanation” makes people think that an appropriate response to domestic firms raising […] The post Why Do Domestic Prices Rise With...

By Martin Gould, here is one excerpt: Halting plans for a large, polluting factory farm feels like a clear win — no ammonia-laden air burning residents’ lungs, no waste runoff contaminating local drinking water, and seemingly fewer animals suffering in industrial confinement. But that last assumption deserves scrutiny. What protects one community might actually condemn […] The post Five insights from farm animal economics...

Russia’s stock market has suffered its worst week in more than two years in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs and a drop in global oil prices. The market capitalization of companies listed on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) fell by 2 trillion rubles ($23.7 billion) over just two days, sliding from 55.04 trillion rubles ($651.8 billion) […] The post Russia facts of the day appeared...

Now for my own view. I think trying to reshore some manufacturing and decouple more from China makes sense from a national security standpoint, even if it costs something to G.D.P. and the stock market. Using revenue from such a limited, China-focused tariff regime to pay down the deficit seems entirely reasonable. I am more […] The post Common sense from Ross Douthat appeared...

1. AI protection against epilepsy? 2. “Well the latest DeepSeek is very satisfying from an humanities perspective. The trick to generalize RL is replacing scalar grades with… source criticism (qualitative principles and critiques).”  Link here. 3. Redrawing India’s electoral map (FT). 4. Build with Tract, an EV project that failed. 5. “How do you individualize […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

People sometimes dismiss basic economic reasoning, “that’s just Econ 101!” yet most policymakers couldn’t pass the exam. Here’s an apropos bit from our excellent textbook, Modern Principles of Economics. Do you shop at Giant, Safeway, or the Piggly Wiggly? If you do, you run a trade deficit with those stores. That is, you buy more […] The post In Defense of Econ 101 appeared...

In my recent post on my Freiburg year abroad, I mentioned that my first time leaving the country was a trip to England.  Somehow I was accepted into a multi-week economics course at Oxford.  Of course it was not the real Oxford, just some program for foreigners held on Oxford campus. I didn’t much care […] The post My 1979 trip to Oxford and...

Thinly capitalized hedge funds’ growing role in the enormous and rapidly expanding market for U.S. Treasury securities poses a clear and present danger to financial stability that warrants a new approach from the Federal Reserve during times of extreme market stress, suggests a paper discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on […] The post Treasury market dysfunction and the role...

1. When did horse welfare peak?  Recently? 2. One Rhodes Scholar discusses how she judges applications.  The lessons there are not what she thinks. 3. Do smoking bans lead to more drinking? 4. Do colluding firms innovate more? 5. Does beauty promote risk-taking? (speculative) 6. Working in the reference department of a public library. 7. […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

We introduce a novel measure of CEO depression by applying machine learning models that analyze vocal acoustic features from CEOs’ conference call recordings. Our research was preregistered via the Journal of Accounting Research‘s registration-based editorial process. In this study, we validate this measure and examine associated factors. We find that greater firm risk is positively associated […] The post Using machine learning to measure CEO...