~nextbigfuture-com | Bookmarks (309)

There will be many new rockets getting first launches in 2025. There will be the Blue Origin New Glenn and the Rocket Lab Neutron. There will be many as many as 16 new rockets from China, the USA and other countries. There should be huge advances with the SpaceX Starship. There will be a first ... Read more

Brian Wang has had over 90% accuracy with public predictions on public websites like Metaculus and Manifold. OpenAI O3 model has shown that greater than human PHD reasoning is possible but with about 30,000 GPUs taking 30 minutes to infer the answer. I forecast an increase to 1 million GPU AI training from 100,000 at ... Read more

There are 370 SpaceX DTC (Direct to Cellphone) Starlink satellites in orbit now. There could be over 1000 SpaceX DTC satellites by the end of 2025. The @SpaceX team achieved an unprecedented launch cadence, conducting 134 Falcon launches with 89 dedicated to expanding the Starlink constellation. Companies working with SpaceX on Direct to Cellphone service. ... Read more

SpaceX Starship will launch V3 Starlink satellites, which will add 60 Tbps of capacity to the network per launch. This will be more than 20x the bandwidth of each Falcon 9 launch today. And with a glimpse of the future, views from Starship entering Earth’s atmosphere were made possible by Starlink. Soon, Starship will launch ... Read more

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe hurtled through the solar atmosphere at a blazing 430,000 miles per hour — faster than any human-made object has ever moved. The NASA Solar Probe flew 3.8 million miles above the surface of the Sun. This is about 25 times closer to the Sun than the earth.

The long-delayed Flamanville 3 EPR reactor in Normandy in northern France has begun delivering electricity to the grid. The 1630 MWe (net) pressurised water reactor was connected to the grid for the first time at 11:48 (local time) on Saturday. Construction work began in December 2007 on the third unit at the Flamanville site – ... Read more

OpenAI o3 achieved an 88.5% score on the ARC-AGI benchmark using high computing equipment which is beyond most humans at 77% scores. OpenAI used up to $10,000 worth of compute for each AGI answer. At a rate of around $1.45 to $1.49 per hour, $10,000 would cover approximately 6,711 to 6,897 GPU hours in Nvidia ... Read more

China DeepSeek AI matches the performance of AI while using only 9% of the AI training compute. The continued improvement in AI while using resources more efficiently shows we will reach AGI at affordable costs for training and inference. AI will reach higher levels of intelligence and energy and computation will get more efficient. DeepSeek ... Read more

I, Brian Wang, shared my 2025 Tesla share price predictions and analysis with Herbert Ong. My bear case is $700 at the end of the year. The base case is $1000 and the bull case is $1500. The bear case is where there is just 500,000 more cars to 2.3 million and megapack energy ramps ... Read more

The scaling of the data centers and progress with AI will continue to surprise people and change the world. Tesla and xAI are at the center of the AI changes. IF the training compute scaling and the inference compute scaling continue to show massive benefits, then this will ensure AI models will have improved capabilities ... Read more

The most important things that happened in 2024 was the progress in AI, robotics and space capability. We are on the verge of AGI (Artificial general intelligence), robotaxi and fully reusable rockets. The most shocking images of the imminent future was the mechazilla catch of the SpaceX booster. As of 23 December 2024 the Starlink ... Read more

NANO Nuclear Space (NNS) will focus on optimizing “ZEUS”, a solid core battery reactor, and “ODIN”, a low-pressure coolant reactor, for applications such as power systems for extraterrestrial projects and human sustaining environments, and potentially propulsion technology for long haul space missions. NNS’ initial focus will be on cis-lunar applications, referring to uses in the ... Read more

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: NNE) developing small nuclear fission reactors that can be moved with trucks announced that it has executed a definitive agreement to acquire select nuclear energy technology assets from Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation and certain of its subsidiaries (collectively, “USNC”). The acquired assets include USNC’s patented Micro Modular Reactor (MMR) system, ... Read more

xAI finished raising $6 billion in new funding and has begun receiving Nvidia GB200 chips. The chips are arriving about a month earlier than expected in a prior chart. I have adjusted by a month for xAI releases. I have also added the Google Gemini models. Google appears able to not have as much issue ... Read more

SpaceX continues to improve the design of the Starship heat shield and has added small tanks to help with the engine restart. The new designs were covered by Felix Schlang at What About It?

The lower box is one the earliest spacecraft ion thrusters (from EOS circa 1962), and on top is a new arrival, a modern marvel from the SpaceX Starlink satellites used for on orbit maneuvering. SpaceX has mastered Argon SpaceX has mastered Argon Hall Effect thrusters, something no one else has been able to do. This ... Read more

OpenAI O3 crushes benchmark tests and puzzles but is it intelligence ? There is some substantial costs of $5000 to $500,000 of compute to solve the hard problems. The AI compute costs will become vastly more efficient and lower cost. The problems have correct answers but there can be more issues around more compromises and ... Read more

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s top recommendation to Congress is an AGI Manhattan project. It is recommended Congress establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability. AGI is generally defined as systems that are as good as or better than human capabilities ... Read more

xAI is completing a 200,000 GPU data center in Memphis. They completed 100,000 GPUs two months ago and were adding another 100,000 GPUs. 300 Megawatts of power is supplied by natural gas powered turbines. Water cooling needs about one million gallons per day. xAI and Tesla are planning to build a one million GPU data ... Read more

OpenAI O3 is scoring great on all of the coding and AGI tests. It is saturating many of the tests. OpenAI O3 seems to have solved a lot of advanced reasoning and math. OpenAI O3 needed to use about $1 million worth of compute to answer the AGI test questions. Dr Alan Thompson increased his ... Read more

OpenaI o3 sets new records in several key areas, particularly in reasoning, coding and mathematical problem-solving. It scores 75.7% on the semi-private eval in low-compute mode (for $20 per task in compute ) and 87.5% in high-compute mode (thousands of $ per task). It’s very expensive. It is not just brute force. These capabilities are ... Read more

Google’s Veo 2 and OpenAI’s Sora are both leaders in AI video generation. Here are some screenshots from Google Veo 2 generated video. Google Veo 2 Has More Resolution and Video Quality Google Veo 2 is capable of generating videos in up to 4K resolution, which is a significant advantage over OpenAI’s Sora, which is ... Read more

Google Gemini 2 AI model (just released) were trained with over 100,000 Trillium chips have been deployed in a single network fabric, enabling massive-scale AI operations. xAI has already trained Grok 3 with 100,000 Nvidia H100s but has not released it yet. xAI has added 100,000 chips and will train Grok 4 with 200,000 Nvidia ... Read more